How do you really know what the outcome of a decision is going to be? Can you predict the course of events that will take place once you choose one option over another? The answer to that question is no, as no-one can see the future. But, when we have more than one option to consider, and a little time to consider them, we can prepare ourselves. We do this by trying to think of every eventuality that might occur, no matter how pessimistic or optimistic they may be. So, what’s the best way to go about this process? A Futures Wheel!
What is the Futures Wheel
This is a simple way to visualise the ripple effects that may occur from any decision you make. As you start to think about the ripples, and add them onto your wheel, you start to see outcomes that you didn’t anticipate. This process allows you to assess the impact of making one decision over another from all angles.
How to use the Futures Wheel
Start with a large piece of paper and draw a circle in the centre. Now write the option you are considering in the centre. For example, you are the owner of a luxury food business. You employ ten staff, have three premises and a fleet of four vans that are used to deliver your products to the shops and outlets that you supply. With a slump in sales, you realise you need to cut your costs by ten per cent over the next year to keep in the black. You have several options you could consider, these are:
• make one member of staff redundant
• sell one of the premises
• sell one of the delivery vans
• reduce waste and associated costs by implementing new procedures for storing and preparing food
Now you have the options, you can start to produce future wheels to decide on which option is the best solution. It might be wise at this time to include other members of staff, if you have them, as they’ll more than likely come up with problems and benefits you might not have considered.
So, in the central circle you should write the first option you need to investigate i.e. make one member of staff redundant. Now, start to think about what the consequences of making a member of staff will be and write those in circles of their own, connecting them to the main circle with lines.
What do you need to think about?
You could think about how it will impact the speed at which you can complete work, having one less employee is surely going to affect productivity. Think about the skills that will be lost – does anyone else know how to do their job? Can those skills be easily taught to another member of staff before you make that person redundant? You get the picture.
Once you’ve completed the wheel for this option, use the same process for the next option and so on. At the end of the process you should be able to see quite clearly which is the best option for you.
Now you’ve chosen which option to take, and in this instance you’ve decided that making an employee redundant is best, you can use the wheel again to decide which employee should leave.
Hopefully these past few weeks have given you some useful decision making tools to work with. Obviously, some will suit you better than others so don’t be afraid to try lots of different processes before deciding which you prefer. You’re bound to come across one you really like.
